Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University
Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
mail to: ashiya#econ.kobe-u.ac.jp (Please replace # with @.)
Fields of Interest:
Entry deterrence in a differentiated market
Herd behavior of economic forecasters
Rationality of macroeconomic forecasts
Arbitrage in racetrack betting markets
Articles in Refereed Journals
- Entry Deterrence:
- "Weak Entrants Are Welcome," (2000)
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
18(6), August, pp.975-984.
- "Sequential Entry in a Vertically Differentiated Market," (2002)
Japanese Economic Review,
53(3), September, pp.315-336.
- Herd Behavior:
- "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," (2001)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,
46(3), November, pp.343-346 (with Takero DOI).
- Rationality of Forecasts:
- "Accuracy and Rationality of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," (2002)
Japan and the World Economy,
14(2), April, pp.203-213.
- "Testing the Rationality of Japanese GDP Forecasts: The Sign of Forecast Revision Matters," (2003)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,
50(2), February, pp.263-269.
- "The Directional Accuracy of 15-Months-Ahead Forecasts Made by the IMF," (2003)
Applied Economics Letters,
10(6), May, pp.331-333.
- "Twenty-two Years of Japanese Institutional Forecasts," (2005)
Applied Financial Economics Letters,
1(2), March, pp.79-84.
- "Testing the Rationality of Forecast Revisions Made by the IMF and the OECD," (2006)
Journal of Forecasting,
25(1), January, pp.25-36.
- "Are 16-Months-Ahead Forecasts Useful?: A Directional Analysis of Japanese GDP Forecasts," (2006)
Journal of Forecasting,
25(3), April, pp.201-207.
- "Forecast Accuracy and Product Differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," (2006)
International Journal of Forecasting,
22(2), April-June, pp.395-401.
- "Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government: Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic," (2007)
Japan and the World Economy,
19(1), January, pp.68-85.
- "Consensus and Accuracy of Japanese GDP Forecasts," (2007)
Applied Economics Letters,
14(13), October, pp.969-974.
- "Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters," (2009)
Journal of Forecasting,
28(2), March, pp.120-130.
- "Testing Homogeneity of Japanese CPI Forecasters," (2010)
Journal of Forecasting,
29(5), August, pp.435-441 (lead article).
- Arbitrage in racetrack betting markets:
- "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," (2015)
Journal of Sports Economics,
16(3), April, pp.322-330.
- National Treasury Disbursements in Japan:
- "Distribution of Interregional Grant and Government Party: National Government Disbursement and LDP," (1997)
JCER Economic Journal (Nihon Keizai Kenkyu)
(in Japanese), No. 34, pp. 180-195
(with Takero DOI).
Books
-
Microeconomics
(2009)
Yuhikaku
(in Japanese). (ISBN: 978-4641163508)
Chapters of Books
- "Accuracy and Rationality of Japanese CPI Forecasters," (2009). In Leon V. Schwartz, ed.,
Inflation: Causes and Effects,
Chapter 2, pp.27-57, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. (ISBN: 978-1-60741-823-8)
- "Forecasting Ability and Strategic Behavior of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," (2010). In Alan T. Molnar, ed.,
Economic Forecasting,
Chapter 6, pp.163-179, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. (ISBN: 978-1-60741-068-3)
Other Articles
-
"Economisuto Yokonarabi no Koudou Genri,"
(2000)
Ronza
(in Japanese), March-April, pp.24-31 (with Takero DOI).
- "Price-Matching Cannot Sustain Collusion," (2000)
OIKONOMIKA,
37(1), pp.95-99.
- "A Test of Trueman's Hypothesis Using the Japanese GDP Forecast Data," (2001)
OIKONOMIKA,
37(3-4), pp.55-59.
- "An Evaluation of GDP Forecasts Made by Japanese Individual Economists," (2005)
Kobe University Economic Review,
51, pp.65-75.
- "Arbitrage on Foot in Japanese National High School Championship at Koshien," (2006)
Kokumin Keizai Zassi
(in Japanese), 194(3), September, pp.41-55.
-
"Nihon no Forecaster no Koudou Bunnseki,"
(2007)
ESP
(in Japanese), December, pp.30-33.
- "Japanese Individual Forecasters: Are They All Equal in Forecasting Ability?," (2008)
Kokumin Keizai Zassi
(in Japanese), 198(2), August, pp.55-60.
- "A Survey on the Favorite-Longshot Bias," (2010)
Kokumin Keizai Zassi
(in Japanese), 202(2), August, pp.13-28.
- "An Example of 'Lock' in the Japanese Horse Racing Betting," (2012)
Kokumin Keizai Zassi
(in Japanese), 205(6), June, pp.81-91.
- "The Frequency of Arbitrage Opportunities in Saga City Horse Racing," (2013)
Kokumin Keizai Zassi
(in Japanese), 207(6), June, pp.53-59.
- "Demographic Changes, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," (2013)
Kobe University Economic Review,
59, pp.1-23 (with Tetsugen HARUYAMA and Shigeyuki HAMORI).
- "On the Possibility of Arbitrage in Ohi, Kawasaki, Funabashi, and Urawa City Horse Racing," (2014)
Kokumin Keizai Zassi
(in Japanese), 209(5), May, pp.59-63.
- "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," (2013) Discussion Paper Series No. 1301, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
Education:
- B.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo, March 1993
- M.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo, March 1995
- Ph.D. in Economics, University of Tokyo, July 1999
- Dissertation title: "Three Tales of
Subgame-Perfection" (Articles #1, #2, and #3)
- Supervisor: Professor Michihiro Kandori
Career History:
- Research Associate, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, June 1998 through March 2000.
- Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya-City University, April 2000 through March 2001.
- Associate Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya-City University, April 2001 through September 2003.
- Associate Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, October 2003 through March 2013.
- Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, April 2013 to present.
Date of Birth: September 1970
Place of Birth: Tokyo, Japan
Last update: March 2015
Masahiro ASHIYA©2014