Masahiro ASHIYA


Present Position:
Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University
Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
mail to: ashiya#econ.kobe-u.ac.jp (Please replace # with @.)

Fields of Interest:
Entry deterrence in a differentiated market
Herd behavior of economic forecasters
Rationality of macroeconomic forecasts
Arbitrage in racetrack betting markets


Articles in Refereed Journals
  • Entry Deterrence:
    1. "Weak Entrants Are Welcome," (2000) International Journal of Industrial Organization, 18(6), August, pp.975-984.
    2. "Sequential Entry in a Vertically Differentiated Market," (2002) Japanese Economic Review, 53(3), September, pp.315-336.

  • Herd Behavior:
    1. "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," (2001) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 46(3), November, pp.343-346 (with Takero DOI).

  • Rationality of Forecasts:
    1. "Accuracy and Rationality of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," (2002) Japan and the World Economy, 14(2), April, pp.203-213.
    2. "Testing the Rationality of Japanese GDP Forecasts: The Sign of Forecast Revision Matters," (2003) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 50(2), February, pp.263-269.
    3. "The Directional Accuracy of 15-Months-Ahead Forecasts Made by the IMF," (2003) Applied Economics Letters, 10(6), May, pp.331-333.
    4. "Twenty-two Years of Japanese Institutional Forecasts," (2005) Applied Financial Economics Letters, 1(2), March, pp.79-84.
    5. "Testing the Rationality of Forecast Revisions Made by the IMF and the OECD," (2006) Journal of Forecasting, 25(1), January, pp.25-36.
    6. "Are 16-Months-Ahead Forecasts Useful?: A Directional Analysis of Japanese GDP Forecasts," (2006) Journal of Forecasting, 25(3), April, pp.201-207.
    7. "Forecast Accuracy and Product Differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," (2006) International Journal of Forecasting, 22(2), April-June, pp.395-401.
    8. "Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government: Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic," (2007) Japan and the World Economy, 19(1), January, pp.68-85.
    9. "Consensus and Accuracy of Japanese GDP Forecasts," (2007) Applied Economics Letters, 14(13), October, pp.969-974.
    10. "Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters," (2009) Journal of Forecasting, 28(2), March, pp.120-130.
    11. "Testing Homogeneity of Japanese CPI Forecasters," (2010) Journal of Forecasting, 29(5), August, pp.435-441 (lead article).

  • Arbitrage in racetrack betting markets:
    1. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," (2015) Journal of Sports Economics, 16(3), April, pp.322-330.

  • National Treasury Disbursements in Japan:
    1. "Distribution of Interregional Grant and Government Party: National Government Disbursement and LDP," (1997) JCER Economic Journal (Nihon Keizai Kenkyu) (in Japanese), No. 34, pp. 180-195 (with Takero DOI).

Books
  • Microeconomics (2009) Yuhikaku (in Japanese). (ISBN: 978-4641163508)

Chapters of Books
  • "Accuracy and Rationality of Japanese CPI Forecasters," (2009). In Leon V. Schwartz, ed., Inflation: Causes and Effects, Chapter 2, pp.27-57, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. (ISBN: 978-1-60741-823-8)
  • "Forecasting Ability and Strategic Behavior of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," (2010). In Alan T. Molnar, ed., Economic Forecasting, Chapter 6, pp.163-179, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. (ISBN: 978-1-60741-068-3)

Other Articles
  • "Economisuto Yokonarabi no Koudou Genri," (2000) Ronza (in Japanese), March-April, pp.24-31 (with Takero DOI).
  • "Price-Matching Cannot Sustain Collusion," (2000) OIKONOMIKA, 37(1), pp.95-99.
  • "A Test of Trueman's Hypothesis Using the Japanese GDP Forecast Data," (2001) OIKONOMIKA, 37(3-4), pp.55-59.
  • "An Evaluation of GDP Forecasts Made by Japanese Individual Economists," (2005) Kobe University Economic Review, 51, pp.65-75.
  • "Arbitrage on Foot in Japanese National High School Championship at Koshien," (2006) Kokumin Keizai Zassi (in Japanese), 194(3), September, pp.41-55.
  • "Nihon no Forecaster no Koudou Bunnseki," (2007) ESP (in Japanese), December, pp.30-33.
  • "Japanese Individual Forecasters: Are They All Equal in Forecasting Ability?," (2008) Kokumin Keizai Zassi (in Japanese), 198(2), August, pp.55-60.
  • "A Survey on the Favorite-Longshot Bias," (2010) Kokumin Keizai Zassi (in Japanese), 202(2), August, pp.13-28.
  • "An Example of 'Lock' in the Japanese Horse Racing Betting," (2012) Kokumin Keizai Zassi (in Japanese), 205(6), June, pp.81-91.
  • "The Frequency of Arbitrage Opportunities in Saga City Horse Racing," (2013) Kokumin Keizai Zassi (in Japanese), 207(6), June, pp.53-59.
  • "Demographic Changes, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," (2013) Kobe University Economic Review, 59, pp.1-23 (with Tetsugen HARUYAMA and Shigeyuki HAMORI).
  • "On the Possibility of Arbitrage in Ohi, Kawasaki, Funabashi, and Urawa City Horse Racing," (2014) Kokumin Keizai Zassi (in Japanese), 209(5), May, pp.59-63.

  • "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," (2013) Discussion Paper Series No. 1301, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.


Education:
  • B.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo, March 1993
  • M.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo, March 1995
  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of Tokyo, July 1999
    • Dissertation title: "Three Tales of Subgame-Perfection" (Articles #1, #2, and #3)
    • Supervisor: Professor Michihiro Kandori

Career History:
  • Research Associate, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, June 1998 through March 2000.
  • Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya-City University, April 2000 through March 2001.
  • Associate Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya-City University, April 2001 through September 2003.
  • Associate Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, October 2003 through March 2013.
  • Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, April 2013 to present.

Date of Birth: September 1970
Place of Birth: Tokyo, Japan

Last update: March 2015

Masahiro ASHIYA©2014